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AUS vs PAK 2024/25, AUS vs PAK 3. ODI Match Preview

Big picture: Pakistan confident, Australia undermanned

Australian soil has been the scene of nightmares for Pakistan for decades. But buoyed by the fiery bowling of fast Haris Rauf, Pakistan are on the verge of a rare series win in Australia and go into Sunday's decider at Optus Stadium with high confidence after defeating the world champions by nine wickets in Adelaide.

There can of course be dangers in dealing with such a volatile team, but Pakistan deserve to go into the third and final ODI in Perth as favorites. If not for Pat Cummins' late heroics with the bat at the MCG, they probably should have finished the series already.

Pakistan bounced back superbly with a masterclass in the second ODI, pummeling Australia's batters with deft pace bowling before impressive young opener Saim Ayub treated Australia's frontline attack with disdain.

It's hard to remember a more clinical performance from a visiting team in Australia. Pakistan, whose top coach Gary Kirsten resigned just a week before the tour due to unrest, can almost sniff an unlikely series win as they face a weakened Australia.

Cummins, Steven Smith, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and Marnus Labuschagne will not play as they begin preparation for the first Test against India.

Josh Inglis becomes Australia's 30th ODI captain and faces the difficult task of assembling a new-look team in conditions that will once again test their batting order and all-out attack. There will be significant pressure on failed openers Matt Short and Jake Fraser-McGurk, who both faced criticism over their shot selections in the two games.

While the series is seen as a prelude to the blockbuster Test summer, underlined by the modest attendances in Melbourne and Adelaide, there is added significance for both teams ahead of the upcoming Champions Trophy in Pakistan.

Form Guide

Australia LWWLL (last five ODIs, most recent first)
Pakistan WLLWW

In the spotlight: Josh Inglis and Haris Rauf

Josh Inglis, 29, will make his captaincy debut for Australia and will also lead his team in the subsequent T20I series against Pakistan. Due to his heavy workload with the gloves, Inglis has never taken charge of Western Australia or Perth Scorchers in the BBL, but his leadership skills and tactical skills are widely respected. Two years ago he captained a very strong Prime Minister's XI in a first-class match against the West Indies. The English-born Inglis started the season in outstanding form and was even mooted as a possible left-field option to solve Australia's Test opening dilemma. Inglis continued to look good in the first two games but failed to convert starts. In a field he has long dominated in the BBL, Inglis is emerging as Australia's key batsman, looking to start his captaincy on a winning note.

Haris Rauf has undoubtedly been the standout performer of this series so far, with eight wickets that shocked Australia. He has been unplayable at times on helpful surfaces and has raised doubts about whether Australia's batsmen can cope with fast pace. Rauf should enjoy the extra bounce at Optus Stadium, but he must not get carried away. He should aim to replicate the discipline he showed in Adelaide, which featured excellent line and length – reminiscent of Test cricket – to put the nail on the cake for Labuschagne. If he can finish the series in style, his performances in the three matches will go down in Pakistan's fast bowling history.

Team news: Mass changes for Australia

Speedy Sean Abbott, who played in the series opener, is likely to return to Australia along with experienced all-rounder and Perth local Marcus Stoinis. Hometown heroes Lance Morris and Cooper Connolly are being considered, while speedy Spencer Johnson and Xavier Bartlett are also in the squad.

Australia (probable): 1 Matt Short, 2 Jake Fraser-McGurk, 3 Josh Inglis (captain, week), 4 Glenn Maxwell, 5 Marcus Stoinis, 6 Aaron Hardie, 7 Cooper Connolly, 8 Sean Abbott, 9 Spencer Johnson/Xavier Bartlett, 10 Adam Zampa, 11 Lance Morris

After such a comprehensive win in Adelaide, Pakistan is likely to remain unchanged.

Pakistan (probably): 1 Saim Ayub, 2 Abdullah Shafique, 3 Babar Azam, 4 Mohammad Rizwan (captain, week), 5 Kamran Ghulam, 6 Salman Agha, 7 Irfan Khan, 8 Shaheen Shah Afridi, 9 Naseem Shah, 10 Haris Rauf, 11 Mohammad Hasnain

Place and conditions

A fast and bouncy surface is expected on a site designed to replicate the famous conditions of nearby WACA. But in white-ball cricket, runs usually come at the ground as batters target the relatively short, straight boundaries.

“The same three principles… pace, carry and bounce, but more of a batter's wicket. Lots of runs,” WA cricket chief curator Isaac McDonald told ESPNcricinfo.

It's been a relatively mild spring in Perth and pleasant temperatures around 20°C are expected during the day.

Statistics and interesting facts

  • Salman Agha has the fifth highest strike rate (94.86) in Pakistan history among batsmen who have completed at least 500 deliveries.
  • Glenn Maxwell needs 50 runs to reach 4000 ODIs.
  • The teams have never played an ODI at Optus Stadium. Pakistan had a 4-3 lead at the WACA.
  • Only two ODIs were played at Optus Stadium. In front of more than 53,000 fans, England's 12-run victory over Australia in January 2018 was the first official sporting event at Burswood Stadium, while South Africa beat Australia by six wickets later that year.

Quotes

“We are traveling to Perth with a clear plan and method. We are committed to the style we want to play.”
Australia's head coach Andrew McDonald

“The most important thing was that the team won. With this performance we wanted to be positive and not think about the result.”
Saim Ayub about Pakistan's victory in the second match

Tristan Lavalette is a journalist based in Perth

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