What it means for winter temperatures and precipitation in Houston

What is La Niña:

HOUSTON – As winter approaches, the climate pattern known as changes La Nina An annual La Niña is predicted to form, although a weak La Niña is expected this year. La Nina Typically, it begins when cooler than average conditions occur in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. This cooling period impacts global weather patterns around the world by changing the strength and position of the jet stream. The blue areas in the sea surface temperature anomalies map below represent below average temperatures. You can watch this video where I explain how La Niña is expected to affect us this winter.

Typical La Niña winters:

Weather conditions in the Pacific Northwest and northern states.

Drier and warmer weather in the southern United States, particularly in places like Texas and Florida.

NOAA's Winter Outlook:

NOAA does not provide a traditional forecast, but rather probabilities for expected conditions. The images below represent these probabilities. According to NOAA, Houston has a 60-70% chance of experiencing above average temperatures this winter. When it comes to precipitation, Houston has a 40-60% chance of experiencing below average precipitation.

Here is the general winter outlook:

• The temperature forecast favors warmer than average conditions throughout the southern United States, extending north to the eastern Great Lakes, East Coast and New England. The best chance is for warmer weather Texas, and along the Gulf and South Atlantic coasts.

• Below-average temperatures are most likely in the Pacific Northwest, extending east to the northern Great Plains.

• The precipitation forecast favors wetter than average conditions for the Great Lakes states, the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rocky Mountains. Dryer-than-average conditions are expected across the southern United States, including the Southwest, Southern Plains, Gulf Coast and Southeast. The highest chance of below average precipitation is reported for portions of the Southwest, South Georgia and much of Florida.

• Regarding drought conditions, widespread moderate to extreme drought is expected to continue across much of the Great Plains and portions of the central Rocky Mountains. Droughts are also likely to occur in the Southwest, the Southern Plains and parts of the Southeast, including Texas.

Houston's winter forecast:

We have a partnership with Weatherbell.comwho provided us with their winter forecast. According to Weatherbell, Houston and throughout Southeast Texas are expected to experience temperatures 3 degrees Celsius above average this winter, making it an exceptionally warm season. At these temperatures we can hardly use our winter coats. Below-average rainfall is expected, which will worsen drought conditions in the region.

What it all means:

In Houston, previous La Niña events typically resulted in above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation during the winter. While there is still a chance of cold snaps, freezing temperatures and even snow, the general trend points to a warmer and drier winter.

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