McNeese State vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds and Tips

The McNeese State Cowboys, one of the best mid-major teams in the country, will visit the second-ranked team in the country, the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Cowboys were stunned in their first matchup against South Dakota State, losing as double-digit favorites to the Jackrabbits 80-73. The Crimson Tide have rattled off two straight home wins and will look to claim third place on Monday night. McNeese coach Will Wade and Alabama coach Nate Oats have faced off several times before, as Wade was the former head coach at LSU before his recruiting scandal took place. It will be interesting to see who wins the courtside chess game in Tuscaloosa.

As for the actual matchup, Alabama has some real advantages here and it starts on the sidelines. McNeese plays a much smaller cast, particularly up front. Coach Wade combats this by playing a very aggressive defensive style where his team pushes forward to deny the opponent the opportunity. This style can be difficult to implement against an elite shooting team like Alabama, as leaving players like Mark Sears, Latrell Wrightsell, Aden Hollway and Labaron Philon open is a scary proposition. Even with McNeese trying to protect the interior, Alabama could still win the rebounding battle by a significant margin. The Cowboys ranked 254th nationally in defensive rebound rate last season and appeared to make no improvements in that area this season. Cliff Omoruyi, Grant Nelson and Co. could have a very nice evening on the glass with their considerable size advantage.

The number we get at -20.5 may be a bit overstated, as this is most likely an overreaction to McNeese's surprising loss on opening night. But this is a great opponent for the Crimson Tide on the edge, and that factor might be too much to ignore. The Cowboys are tough on defense and could have some success on offense, but the Crimson Tide defense is much improved in all aspects this season, so a bust could happen. Getting a better number live is perhaps the best play I can recommend here. There's a chance the Crimson Tide could come out of the gates cold shooting-wise, which would potentially give us a spot to step in and get a smaller number. If that's not your style, Nate Oats is 18-8 (69%) as a double-digit non-conference favorite in his coaching career, so the number may not matter.

McNeese State vs. Alabama Tip: Alabama -20.5 (-110) available at time of publication. Playable under this number.

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