NBA Cup predictions: Which teams will reach the quarterfinals?

The second edition of the seasonal tournament, known as the Emirates NBA Cup, will take place on Tuesday. All 30 teams will play four group games over the next few weeks for a chance to advance to the knockout rounds and ultimately the championship game on December 17 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Thanks to the efforts of LeBron James, the Los Angeles Lakers won the first NBA Cup, but their exit in the first round of the 2024 playoffs proved that preparing to win a single-elimination tournament in December is very different, than to be successful later after the season.

Conversely, last year's runner-up Indiana Pacers used their unexpected NBA Cup success as a springboard for a long playoff series and reached the Eastern Conference finals before losing to the eventual champion Boston Celtics.

Let's break down which teams have the best chance of following in the footsteps of the Lakers and Pacers using ESPN's Basketball Power Index. We'll also evaluate which teams are best positioned to potentially claim the wild card spot in each conference with Las Vegas in mind.

Jump to a group:
East Group A (CHA, BKN, NYK, ORL, PHI)
East Group B (DET, IND, MIA, MIL, TOR)
East Group C (ATL, BOS, CHI, CLE, WAS)
West Group A (HOU, LAC, MIN, POR, SAC)
West Group B (OKC, LAL, PHX, SA, UTAH)
West Group C (DAL, DEN, GS, NO, MEM)

East Group A

Group favorite: Philadelphia 76ers (34.6%)

Competitors: New York Knicks (23.7%), Orlando Magic (19%)

Lurking: Brooklyn Nets (11.9%), Charlotte Hornets (10.8%)

A team that started 1-6 as the favorite to win the group is a good example of how the NBA Cup can differ from the regular season. The 76ers will bring back former MVP Joel Embiid from his extended absence – first due to injury, then a three-game suspension for shoving a reporter – just in time for their debut in Tuesday's Group A opener against the Knicks .

And since NBA Cup games are never the second night of back-to-back sets, Embiid should be available for all games, even if All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey is out for an extended period of time with a hamstring strain.

The Magic have won consecutive games after losing five in a row without All-Star Paolo Banchero, whose oblique injury will certainly keep him out for the duration of group play but should be the winner of Philadelphia, which hosts New York on Tuesday have the necessary resources to win Group A.

Still, this is a group that may remain largely open due to injuries. BPI simulations show that all five teams (the Nets and Hornets complete Group A) win at least 10% of the time, easily making it the most competitive group from top to bottom.

East Group B

Group favorite: Miami Heat (38.4%)

Competitors: Milwaukee Bucks (26.9%), Indiana Pacers (20%)

Lurks: Detroit Pistons (8.3%), Toronto Raptors (6.3%)

Although East's Group B isn't as competitive from top to bottom as Group A, it is most open at the top. Currently, only the Heat are projected to win 30% of BPI simulations. That's a testament to the slow start for the Bucks, who looked like the top team in the group early in the season before struggling early in the season that left them stuck at the bottom of the East.

Milwaukee could get a boost with Khris Middleton potentially returning from ankle surgery during group play. If Jimmy Butler can return soon from his ankle injury, Miami will remain the favorites in Group B and have the best point differential among these teams so far this season.

Indiana has a better chance of repeating last year's NBA Cup run after a .500 start this season.

East Group C

Favorite: Boston Celtics (50.8%)

Competitors: Cleveland Cavaliers (40.7%)

Lurking: Chicago Bulls (4%), Atlanta Hawks (3.7%), Washington Wizards (0.8%)

ESPN's Brian Windhorst said winning the NBA Cup is a good goal for the Cavaliers, the NBA's last undefeated team. There is only one big challenge for Cleveland: playing with the Celtics in by far the top-heavy group. Worse, this game will be played next Tuesday in Boston, a repeat of last season's Eastern Conference semifinals.

Although the Celtics are the clear BPI favorite, both top teams advance in about 70% of simulations as there is a high probability that this group will receive the East wildcard.

For tiebreaker purposes, the Cavaliers want to increase the score as much as possible with their wins. Last year, teams didn't really understand the incentive to maximize the points difference by the end of group play, which led to one-sided losses on the final night. This time around, expect possible wildcards to push the game up from the start.

Cleveland begins at home with the Bulls and could have the biggest lead in the Finals for any team that hosts the rebuilding Wizards.

West Group A

Group favorites: Minnesota Timberwolves (31.2%)

Competitors: Houston Rockets (26.4%), Sacramento Kings (20.9%), LA Clippers (15.4%)

Lurking: Portland Trail Blazers (5.2%)

Given their youth, depth and quick start, the Rockets appear to be exactly the type of team that could pull off a surprise run in the NBA Cup.

Standing in their way are the Timberwolves (still finding their footing after acquiring Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in the preseason), the Clippers and the Kings.

The challenge for the Rockets is that their two most difficult group games are played away. The same goes for the Clippers, although they are undefeated on the road so far. Conversely, this is an advantage for Sacramento, which can host the other two top candidates at the Golden 1 Center, including the Rockets in a potentially decisive final.

West Group B

Group favorites: Oklahoma City Thunder (43.2%)

Competitors: Phoenix Suns (26.4%), Los Angeles Lakers (20.1%)

Lurking: San Antonio Spurs (5.5%), Utah Jazz (4.8%)

Before Sunday's game against Golden State, the Thunder were projected to advance to the quarterfinals of the regular-season tournament in nearly 90% of simulations.

Those chances plummeted after star center Chet Holmgren suffered a broken pelvis in the game. He will be out for at least eight to 10 weeks and will likely be out for the duration of the tournament.

A few factors still suggest that the Thunder will win a group that also includes the top-scoring Suns and the reigning tournament champion Lakers. Firstly, in an important game in this group on Friday, the Thunder host the Suns, who will be without Kevin Durant for at least two weeks due to a calf strain.

The group also includes three of the five teams in the West with a negative point differential (Lakers, Spurs and the Jazz) – meaning this group is most likely to receive the conference wild card.

As long as the Suns, who are without Durant, can keep the ball in Oklahoma City, they have an excellent chance of advancing even if they lose.

The Lakers' hopes of defending their tournament title will be complicated by the game in Phoenix, and it remains to be seen whether league leader Anthony Davis will be available this week after suffering an eye injury in Sunday's win over Toronto has.

West Group C

Group favorites: Golden State Warriors (33.6%)

Competitors: Denver Nuggets (26.1%), Dallas Mavericks (24.1%)

Lurking: Memphis Grizzlies (13.8%) New Orleans Pelicans (2.5%)

Three of the West's top six teams in point differential are in this group, making it the most difficult in the NBA Cup – and one that also features many injured stars. Although the weakened Pelicans are hampering forward Zion Williamson and several other key players due to injuries, the schedule could make it difficult for the second-place team to secure a wild-card spot.

Golden State's fast start has made the Warriors the favorites. They also host two of the other three top teams in Group C, but travel to Denver on the final night of the game.

The Nuggets also play two of their three toughest games at home, and there's a slim chance they could get starting forward Aaron Gordon back from a calf strain when they face Golden State in the finals.

The schedule is more difficult for both Dallas and the Memphis Grizzlies (who are without guard Ja Morant due to a hip injury), although the Mavericks can win anywhere. This may also include the showpiece game of the NBA Cup group stage: Klay Thompson's return to the Bay on Tuesday evening.