Ukraine and Russia are fighting for advantages before Trump's return

Ukraine's military is sending medics to the front lines in anticipation of an increased Russian attack as both sides fight for territorial advantages ahead of Donald Trump's return to the White House.

Military officials, soldiers and analysts see the next few months as a critical phase in the war as Ukraine seeks to stabilize its defenses and strengthen its position in case it is forced into negotiations with Moscow by the new U.S. president .

Moscow has stepped up its attacks in recent months and Ukrainian forces have been unable to hold the line in the east, where Russian forces are now advancing faster than at any time since 2022. Ukrainian officials have admitted their defenses are “crumbling.” . amid staff shortages.

Kiev expects the offensive to gain momentum, and a Ukrainian army spokesman told the Financial Times that more medical personnel were being sent to the eastern front in anticipation of heavy fighting in the coming days and weeks, “particularly in the south and east.” become.

A decisive battle is also looming in Russia's Kursk region, which Ukraine conquered in a surprise invasion in August. However, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky and Western intelligence officials, Russia is currently deploying a force of about 50,000 soldiers, including from North Korea, to push back the Ukrainians.

After taking office, Trump promised to “end the war in 24 hours” and criticized US military aid to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled a willingness to talk, raising fears in Kiev and other European capitals that the U.S. president-elect could support a deal that favors Moscow.

But if Ukraine manages to stop Russia's offensive and seize the initiative by the time Trump takes office on January 20, senior Ukrainian officials believe they can prove they are “fighters” and “winners,” and more help convince the elected president to stand by them.

According to the Center for Defense Strategies (CDS), a Kyiv-based security think tank.

The 10,000 North Korean troops recently deployed alongside Russian soldiers could help tip the balance in Moscow's favor in the Kursk region. “That’s a huge number. You can’t ignore it,” a senior Western security official said.

The loss of Kursk would deprive Zelensky of a valuable negotiating advantage in possible talks with Moscow, which he said he would only take part in if Russia completely withdrew from Ukraine.

Putin, whose army has made steady gains in recent months, has expressed interest in negotiations only if Kiev accepts all of his demands – including extending Russian occupation to the entire six occupied eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, of which Russia excepts Russia does not fully control Crimea.

According to Deep State, a Ukrainian war tracking group closely linked to the Defense Ministry, Russia has captured over 1,200 square kilometers in Ukraine since August. That's double what Kiev's troops are currently stationing in the Kursk region, deep state data shows.

At several hotspots along the 1,000-kilometer front line, Ukrainian troops are enduring relentless Russian air and ground attacks. A commander of an artillery unit near Kurakhove, where fighting is most intense, told the Financial Times on Monday that Russian troops were “attacking from three sides.” He and his troops are “ready to withdraw,” he said, “but we don’t have an order from above yet.”

Kurakhove and the city of Pokrovsk, 40 km north, are both important logistics centers for the Ukrainian army and have now been largely destroyed. The coking plant on the outskirts of Pokrovsk, which was also attacked, is the largest in Ukraine and is crucial to Ukraine's steel industry.

CDS, the military think tank, estimated that the front line would likely shift 30 to 35 km west of its current position by December.

Major General Dmytro Marchenko said last month that the Eastern Front was “collapsing” due to a lack of ammunition and manpower. “People are very exhausted. They simply cannot hold the fronts they are on,” he said.

According to commanders and analysts, manpower, particularly infantry, remains Ukraine's biggest challenge.

“The average age in various brigades is already over 40 years old and there does not seem to be enough reinforcements at the front,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst and fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, who recently visited Ukraine.

Ukraine plans to draft another 160,000 troops between November and February. According to the National Security and Defense Council's assessment, the military units would only be increased to around 85 percent of their requirements.

But military experts and a senior Kiev official expressed skepticism that the goal will be achieved, saying it is more realistic to expect up to 100,000 troops to be called up. This would close about half of the staffing gap, which would still be an improvement as some units currently only have about a third of staffing requirements.

Several Ukrainian commanders and soldiers said efforts to recruit more men into the army were hampered by indefinite conscription. Kiev is reluctant to pass a demobilization law because it fears it could lead to an exodus of soldiers.

“Many people now see mobilization as a death sentence,” said a senior soldier who joined the army in spring 2022 and has not taken a break since.

Stanislav Aseyev, a well-known Ukrainian journalist and soldier, said: “Without a clear answer on length of service and quality of training, recruits will be as demoralized and ineffective as the current battle-weary infantry.”

To make up for the shortage, some infantry units have reportedly been reinforced with Air Force pilots, engineers, medics and surgeons, said Mariana Bezuhla, a lawmaker on the Foreign Policy Committee, echoing concerns first raised by front-line soldiers.

Col. Yuriy Ignat, a senior Air Force official, said earlier this month that some Air Force personnel had been transferred to front-line units, citing difficult circumstances.

However, a spokesman for the Ukrainian army firmly rejected the allegations and said that Ignat had made a mistake. “Air force units, including engineers, pilots, maintenance personnel and medical teams, remain in their specialized positions,” the spokesman said, adding that more medics would be sent to “stabilization points” closest to the front in anticipation of intensified fighting and greater casualties.

Two commanders who led units on the Eastern Front said qualified personnel, including medics, had previously been sent to the infantry. “War sometimes requires these things,” said one of the commanders. “I’ve sent my cooks into the trenches before.”

Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who recently visited the front, said Russia is “simply overwhelming the Ukrainians because they now have more resources.”

“They may not be skillful attacks, but the consistency and frequency of these attacks is wearing down the Ukrainian side,” she said.

Russia's successes came at enormous costs. British defense chief Admiral Sir Tony Radakin recently estimated that Moscow troops suffered around 1,500 deaths and injuries “every single day” in October, with the total number of casualties reaching 700,000 since February 2022.

Russia has sharply increased payouts for military operations in Ukraine in recent months, suggesting the army is struggling to recruit more men. But the enormous sums on offer have also made ordinary Russians immune to the losses their forces are suffering in Ukraine, Massicot said.

“What this means for the rest of the Russian population is that they look at them and say, 'Well, they're only in it for the money.' And when they are killed, the reaction is that they knew what they were getting into,” she said.

North Korea could also send a second wave of troops to bolster Russia's personnel advantage. According to a report published in October by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, Kim Jong Un, its leader, has about 20,000 troops he could do without and has provided $5.5 billion in military assistance to Russia .

“Every advantage in manpower and equipment counts,” the Western security official said. Although Russia is expected to struggle to maintain its defense production rates until the end of next year, “Ukraine has much bigger problems now.”

Cartography by Steven Bernard