Nickal vs Craig Preview, Picks, Predictions

The next pay-per-view on the UFC schedule is just around the corner. That fight card, UFC 309, takes place on Saturday, November 16th. The PPV event will be headlined by a match between current UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones and former two-time UFC heavyweight titleholder Stipe Miocic. The evening's co-main event is a rematch between former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira and three-time Bellator champion Michael Chandler. Before these two matchups take place, UFC middleweight contender Bo Nickal looks to continue his climb up the rankings against veteran UFC competitor Paul Craig.

UFC 309 takes place on November 16th at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The PPV card will stream on ESPN+ following the prelims on ESPNews and the early prelims on ESPN+

UFC 309 Preview: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

Bo Nickal (6-0) received a UFC contract after a bout on Jorge Masvidal's iKON FC card and two appearances on Dana White's Contender Series in 2022. Nickal is 3-0 under the UFC banner with three Postgame victories. He has never made it past the second round in any of his professional fights, and prior to his UFC 300 match against Cody Brundage, he had not fought past the 2:54 mark in the first round. Nickal stopped Brundage via rear-naked choke at 3:38 of round 2.

Nickal has been a huge betting favorite before each of his UFC matches. In his promotional debut, Nickal was a -2500 favorite over Jamie Pickett. In his next fight against late substitute Val Woodburn, Nickal came into the game at -2200. Against Brundage, Nickal was the -1800 betting favorite.

Nickal's background is wrestling. He was a three-time NCAA Division I national champion and three-time Big Ten Conference champion for head coach Cael Sanderson and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Nickal placed second in the 2016 NCAA Finals, losing to Myles Martin of Ohio State. Nickal defeated Martin in the 2018 finals. He compiled a career record of 131-5 at Penn State and went 61-0 in his final two years.

Paul Craig (17-8-1) has been with the UFC since 2016. Things haven't been going well for Craig over the past two years. He is 1-4 in that time, with a TKO win over Andre Muniz and losses to Volkan Oezdemir, Johnny Walker, Brendan Allen and Caio Borralho. His last match was a knockout loss to Borralho in May.

Craig is an accomplished grappler who never gives up. He is a tough opponent for anyone and poses a threat in every fight. Craig is the only fighter who was able to score a victory over the highly ranked Magomed Ankalaev, defeating him literally in the last second of their 2018 fight. Ankalaev is the No. 1 fighter in the official UFC light heavyweight rankings and is expected to be the next opponent of that division's champion Alex Pereira.

Craig has never lost three fights in a row. He has bounced back from his recent defeats in two fights with stoppage wins.

UFC 309: Bo Nickal over Paul Craig

“I think a lot of people know Paul Craig, he's had some really big wins in his career and is a dangerous opponent,” Nickal said. “He's finished guys who were champions and fighting for the belt, so this is definitely the most dangerous fight I've had so far and a big step up. But I feel prepared and ready to just continue to build my reputation.”

“To me it’s just another mystery to solve. It’s another challenge I have to face,” Nickal added. “I want to develop my overall skills and improve and improve as a fighter. This is a different challenge than the ones I've had in the past and I'm enjoying it more. The fighting is a little bit physical, but mostly mental. I'm just excited to go out there and show my brains and fight my IQ, just as I continue to control my opponents and dominate every second.

UFC 309: Paul Craig on Bo Nickal

“At the moment I have an undefeated candidate in front of me in Bo Nickal. Those are the fights that excite me,” Craig said. “The ones where I'm the underdog and everyone says, 'Paul Craig is going to lose.' That’s when I produce my best work.”

“Bo Nickal is a tough opponent, but he has never played against someone as experienced as me,” Craig added. “If you look at Bo's mixed martial arts record, it's a very nice record, but he's not experienced and he hasn't experienced the same level of competition that I have. On top of that, he hasn't been in the Octagon that long. When you think about 6-0 and think about the actual time he spent there, you get 15 minutes and he does it in two or three minutes. I was there, blood, sweets, tears. I was able to go into deep water and survive, and that's where we'll find out if he's capable of that. Can he go into deep water and survive?”

UFC 309 betting odds: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

When the UFC first announced this contest, the betting line was that Bo Nickal was the -910 favorite over the +600 Paul Craig. The betting line has since shifted. Today, Nickal is the -1667 favorite over Craig, who enters the race as a +560 underdog.

UFC 309 Predictions and Tips: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

The easy choice would be for Bo Nickal to win, but given the current betting odds, that choice has little value. Craig is a skilled grappler, but his punch is little more than serviceable. I expect Nickal's takedown game and Craig's willingness to get tangled up on the mat will result in the fighters staying on the ground for most of this fight, and that's where Nickal will use ground strikes for the TKO finish to achieve.

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