Trump faces a higher risk of a fight in the South China Sea in his second term

• In his first term, Donald Trump increased military action to counter China in the South China Sea.
• Four years later, China has become more confrontational and leaves less room for error.
• Tensions are so high that a skirmish could escalate into a regional war, an analyst told BI.

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to office, one of his biggest challenges may be an issue that was rarely discussed during the campaign.

The South China Sea — disputed waters that China says is its own and the U.S. says belongs to no single country — has emerged as a risk factor in the years that Trump has been out of government.

During his first term, Trump's administration took a hard line on China, increasing its patrols and exercises in the region and rejecting Chinese territorial claims.

Since then, China has expanded its presence in the region and has become increasingly willing to confront other countries there, including the Philippines, an ally that the U.S. is contractually obligated to defend.

“The error rate has shrunk since 2016-2020,” said Hunter Marston, an Asia-Pacific researcher at the Australian National University.

“It would now take fewer sparks for a skirmish or collision to trigger a conflict involving all parties,” he said.

An important ally

Trump has not said how he would handle the region in his second term as president.

South China Sea watchers expect continuity with the Biden administration, which has sought to step up diplomatic efforts and strengthen U.S. alliances and security partnerships.

Gregory Poling, director of the Southeast Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Trump “introduces a degree of personal unpredictability compared to Biden.”

“But there is no reason to expect major changes in U.S. policy on this front.”

Finding a delicate balance

Trump, like President Joe Biden before him, must strike a delicate balance.

There have been clashes between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels in recent months, including clashes involving swords and knives.

Under a 1951 treaty, the U.S. is obligated to help the Philippines repel armed attacks – something China has avoided through so-called armed attacks Gray area operations who are not technically “armed.”

The Philippine defense minister told CBS News: “60 Minutes” in September that there were ongoing discussions about what exactly would prompt US intervention.

Although Trump has not outlined a specific plan for the South China Sea, he could follow his broader foreign policy mantra of “peace through strength.”

That comes with its own risks.

“Unbridled U.S. militarization is the very reason for Beijing’s insecurity and will further escalate tensions in the South China Sea,” Marston said.

An alliance at stake

Sari Arho Havrén, an associate fellow at Britain's Royal United Services Institute specializing in China, said Trump needs to decide how committed he is to the region.

“To be globally influential, the US needs its allies,” she said.

Trump has often taken a skeptical stance toward alliances he deemed unfair to the United States — including its role in defending Europe, its support for Ukraine and its military commitments in South Korea.

Zeno Leoni, a lecturer in the Department of Defense Studies at King's College London, believes that US economic interests in the South China Sea make the region an exception.

A year-long conflict in East Asia that includes the South China Sea could result in a 5-10% loss in U.S. GDP, according to a 2016 research report from the Rand Corporation, a prominent think tank.

Leoni believes that the Trump administration will try to achieve a balance.

“Both Trump's and Biden's national security strategies placed an emphasis on managing the rise of China, and this is unlikely to change in the context of a more isolationist foreign policy,” he said.