The Israeli intelligence leaks – o

If the purpose of the leaks was to alert the American people and the US government to the danger posed by an Israeli attack on Iran, the mission so far appears to have failed.

From Scott Ritter
Scott Ritter Extra

TThe leak of two top-secret documents that, when examined, appear to contain classified U.S. intelligence information about Israel's military preparations for an attack on Iran has sparked intense controversy in the United States.

As U.S. law enforcement agencies struggle to pinpoint the source of the leak, U.S. politicians or the American public at large are expressing little concern about the implications of the information it contains – that Israel is preparing a massive attack on Iran that could trigger catastrophe is about a major conflict that could realistically lead to the use of nuclear weapons.

According to the leaked intelligence documents, Israel was preparing about 40 ROCKS air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs) ​​for a possible attack against Iran, along with 16 “Golden Horizon” ALBMs, which appear to be what is publicly known as “Blue” Sparrow” missile, an adaptation of a target missile developed by Israel to mimic Iran’s Shahab-3 ballistic missile.

The ROCKS has a proven range of more than 500 miles, while the Blue Sparrow/Golden Horizon has a range of around 1,200 miles.

Israel's daily airstrikes over Lebanon and Syria provide the perfect cover for an attack on Iran. The Israelis are attacking Syrian air defense installations in southern Syria on a daily basis to create a pattern of behavior while carving a path through Syrian airspace that can be used by Israeli aircraft to penetrate western Iraq, from where long-range ALBMs are fired can be used against Iran.

Top Israeli military commanders Yoav Galant, Herzi Halevi and Tomer Barover on September 28, as Israeli warplanes attacked Beirut. (IDF Spokesperson Unit, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0)

This appears to be the tactic Israel used on April 19, when an Israeli strike package that bombed two Syrian air defense sites in southern Syria entered Iraq and fired three likely ROCKS ALBMs against an Iranian S-300 air defense battery outside Isfahan . The ROCKS ALBM uses a “Blue Sparrow” booster, one of which was found in a field south of Baghdad after the attack.

An assessment of the prepared missile mix suggests that Israel is preparing for a major attack on a major military production facility near Tehran (the Parchin missile production facility comes to mind, as does the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group) or – more likely – a decapitation strike against Goals of the Iranian leadership in and around Tehran. The ALBM attacks would be supported by armed covert drones that could track mobile targets in real time and attack them with onboard weapons if necessary.

By comparison, the United States' attack on the eight Iraqi targets near Baghdad on the opening day of Operation Desert Storm used 35 air-launched cruise missiles. Most of these missiles hit the Taji missile production and storage facility north of Baghdad. The weapons mix prepared by Israel suggests a similarly large target package.

Another possible target

But there is an additional target option.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made the statement in a three-minute speech in English to the Iranian people on September 30, three days after Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah “There is no place in the Middle East that Israel cannot reach. We will not go anywhere to protect our people and our country.”

Netanyahu said the Iranian government was bringing Iranians “closer to the brink,” adding that Iran and Israel would only find peace when Iran was “finally free,” which Netanyahu said would come “much sooner than the people.” think”.

If Tehran is the target, Israel must neutralize Iran's air defense systems in the path of the attack. If Israel repeats its previous pattern of behavior, a large package of F-15Is, supported by F-16Is that would suppress Syrian air defenses, would enter western Iraq via Syria and invade western Iraq.

A USAF F-15E refueling over the mountains of Afghanistan in 2008. (US Air Force, Aaron Allmon, Wikimedia Commons, Public Domain)

The first salvo of ALBMs – most likely ROCKS – would be fired, the intended targets of which would be the Iranian air defense radars located along the attack route. The final missiles fired would be the Blue Sparrow/Golden Horizon missiles, which would hit their targets in and around Tehran.

These targets could include the residences of senior Iranian leaders, including the Supreme Leader, as well as buildings associated with government symbols, such as the Guardian Council, the Ministry of Intelligence, the IRGC headquarters, and other targets identified as supporting the Islamic Republic.

Israel would likely follow such an attack with a call for the Iranian people to revolt against the regime. This appeal would be in line with the actions of anti-regime forces operating at the direction of Israel, the United States and other regional actors. These include pro-monarchy groups, the MEK and various Kurdish, Azerbaijani, Baloch and Arab independence movements.

John Bolton, U.S. national security adviser in the Trump administration from 2018 to 2019, speaks at a MEK event in October 2017. (VOA Persian, Wikipedia Commons, Public Domain)

Israel, the CIA and other foreign intelligence agencies hostile to Iran attempted a similar uprising against the Iranian government in September 2023 after Mahsa Amini died in police custody. What began as local demonstrations escalated into a full-scale uprising that claimed the lives of approximately 550 protesters/insurgents and nearly 70 Iranian security personnel before being violently suppressed.

Israel would seek to repeat an uprising of this kind, but this time it would help by preemptively dealing a fatal blow to the Iranian leadership.

Protest on Keshavarz Boulevard in Tehran in September 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody. (Darafsh, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)

The chances that Israel can carry out such a decapitation strike are slim. Given the Iranian government's recent crackdown on anti-regime groups, it is unlikely that those the Israeli government hopes will rebel against the Iranian regime have regrouped in any meaningful way.

Furthermore, by focusing on a beheading attack, Israel will have done little to prevent Iran from launching its own massive retaliatory attack on Israel. Perhaps the Israeli leadership believes that once it eliminates the highest levels of the Iranian leadership, the resolve to retaliate will weaken. However, it is a serious gamble and Israel risks suffering existential damage from a concerted Iranian retaliation.

US intelligence agencies stated that Israel's nuclear deterrent capability in the form of its Jericho missiles was not operational. However, this would not be the case if Iran launched missile attacks against Israel that would endanger its existence. It is precisely for this scenario that the Israeli “Jericho option” (i.e. nuclear weapons capability) was created.

The fact is: If Israel launches a decapitation strike against Iran, it will likely fail. However, the Iranian counterstrike will be very targeted. And at that point, an Israeli nuclear retaliation becomes likely.

Americans should let this sink in while we consider the significance of the leaked intelligence documents. If the purpose of the leak was to alert the American people, and therefore the American government, to the danger posed by an Israeli attack on Iran, the mission so far appears to have failed.

Then we will reap what we have sown.

Wake up, America.

Your future is at stake.

Scott Ritter is a former US Marine Corps intelligence officer who implemented arms control treaties in the former Soviet Union, oversaw the disarmament of weapons of mass destruction in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert Storm, and in Iraq. His latest book is Disarmament in the time of perestroikapublished by Clarity Press.

This article comes from the author's subStack, Scott Ritter Extra

The views expressed are solely those of the author and may not reflect the views of the author Consortium news.

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