Ukrainian army prepares for heavy fight against Russia as winter approaches | News about the Russia-Ukraine war

The coming winter will be a real test for the exhausted Ukrainian population in the third year of the war.

Russia has continually deteriorated the country's energy infrastructure as power plants, power grid substations and storage facilities have been targeted.

In a country where temperatures regularly fall below freezing in winter, the demands on Ukraine's power grid will be significant.

Frontline cities like Kharkiv will bear the greatest burden as two of the power plants supplying the city were destroyed in March.

Russia has identified a vulnerability in Ukraine's infrastructure. Its energy grid is simply too large to adequately defend, especially when air defense is relatively scarce.

Ukraine's steady loss of ability to produce sufficient energy for its population and economy has forced it to rely ever more heavily on nuclear energy.

Fears of a meltdown have meant that the nuclear power plants still under Ukrainian control remain relatively untouched.

But Ukraine has much of its energy needs in this one basket. Nuclear power currently supplies 70 percent of Ukraine's energy needs, one of the highest levels in the world, even more than France's 65 percent.

It's unlikely anyone will bomb nuclear power plants, but the substations and power switchgear responsible for sending electricity to the grid are vulnerable and difficult to repair or replace.

Power outages have occurred repeatedly over the summer, but as fall turns into winter, these power shortages will be felt even more acutely – not only from the lack of domestic heating, but also from the difficulty of meeting the power-hungry needs of Ukraine's growing defense industry to cover.

This industry is vital to keeping its armed forces equipped as support from the United States slowly dwindles.

The upcoming US elections

Regardless of who wins the November 5 election, American sentiment toward Ukraine, while still supportive, has steadily declined.

Domestic budget pressures, war fatigue and the diversion of military resources to Israel over the last year have eroded the goodwill and support shown to Ukraine after the invasion.

If current Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris becomes president, she will likely push for this aid to be maintained at current levels.

However, the combination of a potentially Republican-controlled Senate and a growing number of Democrats focused on local issues — and wondering how much longer it will take Washington to fund a foreign war — could shackle her administration.

Aid is likely to continue, but at a lower level, just as Ukraine seeks to break out of a stalemate with Russia, which has so far exploited its allies to great effect.

Donald Trump, the Republican candidate and former president, has made clear his ability to quickly resolve conflicts.

Such a resolution would likely include an agreement that would end the war in its current situation, with large parts of Ukraine's resource-rich east occupied by Russia.

A cut in U.S. aid to Ukraine would likely force Kiev to eventually agree to a deal that would effectively freeze the conflict but not resolve it.

A prolonged lull in the war would allow Russia to rearm and expand its military, and the frozen conflict would pose an obstacle to Ukraine joining NATO.

While it would also give Ukraine a chance to strengthen its armed forces, it would not give President Volodymyr Zelensky the security guarantees needed to prevent Russia from reigniting the conflict in the near future.

The United States, which has encouraged Europe to get involved and make up for any military aid shortfalls, is currently providing most of the venture capital for start-up European defense companies.

Europe may be tempting

The European Union, many of whose members are also NATO, has repeatedly pledged its support to Ukraine as Russia's invasion refocused defense priorities of both the alliance and the bloc.

The potential shortfall in U.S. aid is huge and Europe's defense industry is just beginning to ramp up production. Many fear that by the time industrial capacity and billions of dollars in spending have been expanded, a peace agreement could be signed that would eliminate the need for huge amounts of military equipment.

Aside from the potential economic risks, Europe also does not speak with a unified political voice.

Many EU members have moved to the right, which could affect the bloc's support for Ukraine.

Germany, the second largest donor after the United States, has announced it will halve military aid to Ukraine by next year.

Hungarian President Viktor Orban has publicly stated that victory cannot be won on the battlefield and that negotiations should begin.

EU membership is another key issue, as Ukrainians see it as one of the fruits of a possible victory over Russia, while EU members see it as part of a negotiated settlement.

While support for Ukraine remains strong, many Europeans believe that military aid should flow to Ukraine so that it can fight for better terms at a future negotiating table.

The majority of Ukrainians, on the other hand, still hope for a total victory and the complete expulsion of Russia from its territory.

The expectation of a decisive Ukrainian victory on the battlefield drives this thinking, but that may not be likely.

Break the deadlock

Despite Ukraine's surprise attack across the Kursk border in late July, the war is still a war of attrition, a “crushing” of both Ukrainian and Russian forces at great cost.

According to Western intelligence estimates, Russian losses amount to around 1,200 dead and wounded per day. Despite these staggering losses, Russian forces in Donetsk are slowly advancing and approaching the strategic city of Pokrovsk.

In the south, Russia has captured Vuledhar and there are now reports from Ukrainian intelligence of a large troop buildup in the south, with the growing possibility of a renewed Russian offensive against Ukrainian positions towards the city of Zaporizhia.

A successful Russian offensive north, coupled with the capture of Donetsk in the east, would have a profound impact on the conflict.

Under pressure from three sides, Ukraine would have difficulty maintaining its forces on the eastern side of the Dnipro River. With an earlier Ukrainian river attack in the south failing, cross-border attacks on Kursk stalling and Russian advances toward the northeastern city of Kupiansk slowing, Ukrainian forces are coming under increasing pressure.

Ukraine has desperately renewed its recruiting efforts, trying to increase the numbers it needs to stop the Russian onslaught.

For President Zelensky, despite the overwhelming support within the country for a military victory, finding the means to launch the offensive that Ukraine intends to undertake in the near future will be a major challenge. The deadlock may well be broken, but it could be Russia that breaks it.