The election will test Californians' resistance to crime

Occasionally—perhaps once a generation—California experiences a drastic shift in its political climate that upends everything considered the current norm.

The most obvious example occurred in 1978, when voters defied the near-universal advice of political figures and overwhelmingly approved Proposition 13, which lowered property taxes and made it harder to enforce taxes of any kind.

The “tax revolt,” as it was called, forced a complete overhaul of funding for schools and other state and local services and survived several attempts to change or repeal it.

Prop. 13 also forced politicians who vocally opposed it to adapt. Jerry Brown, then governor, was running for re-election. He quickly presented himself as a “born-again tax evader” and sought a cut in the state income tax to demonstrate his loyalty to the new paradigm.

Republicans seized the opportunity to make a serious attempt to become the state's dominant party by exploiting the twin problems of taxes and crime. Between 1980 and 1990, Republicans won eight of the 10 major races for president, governor and U.S. senator.

However, the GOP surge failed to materialize, and by the late 1990s, Democrats had reclaimed dominance in another climate change that was further expanded. However, California may be on the cusp of another atmospheric shift that could slow the party's leftward shift.

The problem is crime, which gave Republicans a boost in the 1980s and early 1990s but appears to have disappeared, at least in political terms, with Jerry Brown, Gavin Newsom and other prominent political figures of late advocating for what years that they called “criminal justice reform.”

They railed against “mass incarceration,” persuaded voters and the legislature to downplay the seriousness of some crimes, reduced sentences, and significantly reduced the number of offenders behind bars. But maybe they went too far.

The Public Policy Institute of California found in a newly released study that overall violent crime rates and some categories of property crimes, particularly auto theft and shoplifting, remain higher than before the pandemic.

Public perceptions of a new crime wave have led to a strong backlash that will be tested in next month's election.

Proposition 36, which would partially reverse Proposition 47, a 2014 criminal justice reform measure, enjoys 73% support in the latest Public Policy Institute of California poll, despite opposition from Newsom and other key Democratic figures.

Newsom tried to get the Legislature to undercut Prop. 36 with a competing measure, but Democratic lawmakers, fearful of the backlash, refused. Newsom could then have raised money for an opposition campaign, but backed down, saying, “It’s a question of bandwidth.”

“I’m afraid I can’t do everything,” he told reporters in September. “I’m trying to make Kamala Harris president of the United States and trying to get these 900 bills passed.”

Translation: Newsom knew Prop. 36 was a slam dunk and didn't want to risk massive opposition by leading an opposition campaign.

While Prop. 36 is a test of what looks like a public revolt against California's recent softer-on-crime policies, it is not the only one.

Two district attorneys elected on reform platforms, George Gascón in Los Angeles County and Pamela Price in Alameda County, could lose their jobs. Gascón is lagging behind in his bid for a new term and Price is facing recall.

If two prosecutors in very liberal districts were removed two years after the recall of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin and won Prop. 36 with great success, the political consequences would be felt for years or even decades.