UFC 308 odds, predictions: Ilia Topuria defends belt against legendary Max Holloway

What a fantastic card we have set up on Saturday for UFC 308 as Ilia Topuria squares off with Max Holloway for the featherweight belt.

I’ll be breaking down that matchup, the co-main event and more below. As always if you want full access to all breakdowns for all slates, you can find that on EstablishtheRun.com or follow me on Twitter for more information at BrettAppley.

Let’s dive in!

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway

The featherweight title is on the line as current champion Topuria will defend his belt against the legendary Holloway.

Topuria made a statement by knocking the former champion Alexander Volkanovski out cold in the second round in February. A victory over Holloway would be the icing on the cake. It was Topuria’s fourth KO victory in the UFC in seven tries, and he still remains undefeated as a professional at 15-0.

Holloway, on the other hand, is coming off a highlight-reel finish himself, where he stepped up to lightweight to face Justin Gaethje for the BMF belt and knocked him out cold with one second remaining in their 25-minute contest.

I thought Holloway had a decent shot to earn the upset there, and I once again consider him a live underdog in this spot against Topuria. He’s arguably one of the most difficult stylistic matchups of all time, and until I see a fighter get past him, it’s tough for me to project it with any confidence.

Holloway has been an absurd volume striker throughout the majority of his career, and he currently averages 7.17 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes while absorbing 4.72 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate. He topped out at 445 significant strikes landed in five rounds against Calvin Kattar and 290 landed against Brian Ortega in four rounds. Most fighters are simply not capable of reaching a volume ceiling like this.

Furthermore, Holloway has been one of the most durable fighters in the sport, and he’s officially never been knocked down in 29 UFC bouts that span nearly 100 rounds. The combination of insane volume upside and insane durability makes Holloway one of the most difficult fighters to face over the span of 25 minutes.

Topuria is ready for him, though, or so he believes. Topuria has built a legit boxing game and holds very fast and powerful hands. He’s knocked down five of his seven UFC opponents, and I definitely believe he’s capable of hurting Holloway as well.

The problem mostly comes in the projection. How often does Topuria hurt Holloway? How often does he knock him unconscious? Considering the historic durability of Holloway against some of the best fighters in the division’s history, I don’t think that outcome happens very often.

Conversely, we’ve seen Topuria hurt very badly in his UFC career. He also attempted to move up to lightweight but was nearly knocked out in the first round by Jai Herbert. He shot a takedown afterward and survived, eventually knocking Herbert out himself, but I would not consider Topuria the beacon of durability.

Even as a distance striker, I’m not fully sold on Topuria. I get that he is technically very sound and threatening, but the facts remain that Volkanovski, Herbert and grappler Bryce Mitchell were all able to outland him at distance. In each of those matchups was that Topuria was able to eventually land his big shot and finish the fight.

Can he do the same to Holloway? I’m unsure.

The public obviously believes he can and will, considering Topuria is a -250 favorite, which is an implied win rate north of 70 percent.

I just find it difficult to come to that projection unless you believe Topuria will put Holloway unconscious at a high rate. If he can’t and if this fight extends, it will be a war. Volkanovski was able to get past Holloway a few times, but Volkanovski’s game is more built on point-striking, leg-kicking and staying on the outside. Topuria wants to rush into the pocket and throw bombs.

I actually did like his performance against Josh Emmett that went five rounds though, where he landed 152 significant strikes over 25 minutes. It showed me that he has the cardio to go five rounds, which is extremely important. Emmett isn’t the best comparison to Holloway though, and he cannot replicate the same offensive or defensive production.

The other note to make is on the grappling side, where Topuria can wrestle and lands 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Holloway has lost to wrestlers in the past before, but not in a decade, and I’m skeptical that Topuria can win with that game plan. He’s wrestled in the past but it’s gotten him tired, and I’d worry he’d waste too much cardio trying to hold Holloway down. On paper it’s at least one additional path to Topuria.

My primary expectation is that these two fight at range. Topuria will be looking for power shots, and Holloway will be the more active striker and want to make it a war. Few have been able to pass the Holloway test, and I’m going to pick the dog to pull off the upset outright. But I respect Topuria’s boxing skills, and if he can put away Holloway in a similar fashion to Volkanovski, props to him.

Holloway is +200 on BetMGM and I think there’s value to be had on that line. You don’t have to force any action, but I am expecting this fight to be competitive if Holloway is conscious, and we know he has the volume upside to win rounds. It’s an easy dog line for me to poke at, but I can’t wait to see how it unfolds on Saturday.

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker

We finally get to see contender Chimaev in a five-round contest, though I’m not certain it will last that long as he’ll take on the former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker.

Chimaev had a dominant start to his UFC tenure, winning four fights inside the distance while only absorbing one total significant strike in that span. He’s since come away with wins over Gilbert Burns, Kevin Holland and Kamaru Usman, so the matchup against Whittaker makes sense. Even after those wins, I have some concerns.

Primarily, I am not convinced he holds the cardio to fight a hard five rounds, and I also don’t consider his striking defense to be very strong.

Chimaev is a primary wrestler who is averaging 3.99 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he’s definitely one of the best in the division. He could theoretically win the title with his wrestling and nothing more. That gives him a high floor in just about any matchup, and watching him take Usman down multiple times gives a highlight reel of Chimaev’s abilities.

The problem is that while Chimaev won a dominant first round against Usman, he was already tired by Round 2 and lost it, and then barely escaped Round 3 with some late control. Had that fight been scheduled for five rounds, it’s very possible Usman would have won or even found a way to finish Chimaev, who was huffing and puffing.

Similarly, when Chimaev fought Burns, he had to go to war, landing and absorbing more than 100 significant strikes. It was a fun win, but Burns is a grappler and has never been an efficient striker. Not until Burns fought Chimaev was he landing strikes at will, and he even hurt Chimaev at one point.

Currently, Chimaev lands 5.72 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.46 per minute, but his striking defense is only 42 percent, which is atrocious. I have concerns that his defense won’t hold up against the best in this division if forced to strike.

That will be key for Whittaker, who made his first run as champion with the same style he’ll need to employ against Chimaev. He would stuff takedowns, scramble up to his feet and prove his superior striking skills. Whittaker is not easy to hold down, and Jacare Souza, Yoel Romero and Derek Brunson all learned that lesson the hard way.

The issue here is that Whittaker is past his prime and has nothing left to prove in the sport. He’s been in wars and has suffered terrible injuries. He doesn’t look fully in form to me. Specifically, his matchup against Dricus Du Plessis concerns me. Du Plessis was able to drag Whittaker down in the clinch, and then he landed some really hard ground-and-pound on top. Whittaker still survived, but he was hurt and was then TKO’d in the second round.

Watching that exchange, I have to project Chimaev to land takedowns early in this contest. Despite Whittaker defending historically at 82 percent, I don’t think he can keep Chimaev off of him early. From there, Chimaev just might win the fight. He will take the back, land ground-and-pound and hunt for submissions. There’s still reason to believe Whittaker will survive, but he may take a beating.

If he can survive, Whittaker can win this. He absolutely has five-round cardio, and his past wars have proven that. Even if Chimaev can take him down early, I am far less confident that Chimaev will be able to pressure and wrestle late in Rounds 4 and 5. At any point, Whittaker could turn up the heat, and force some pocket exchanges that put Chimaev away. I think that’s a very realistic outcome for this matchup, but it’s dependent on Whittaker surviving early.

So I understand why Chimaev is the favorite here, and he sits at -275 on BetMGM. It’s not a spot I would be excited to bet, though, and I’d potentially be looking for a live betting entry if Whittaker can survive the first round.

Whittaker has been one of my favorite fighters to back, and I really hope he has enough in the tank to pull off one more win. Chimaev is a very dangerous wrestler though, and will test him early. It should be a fun contest but it’s ultimately not one I will be looking to bet pre-fight.

Abus Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira

One of my favorite fights on the prelims, Magomedov vs. Ferreira, promises some chaos.

For starters, Ferreira has not made it past the first round in any of his five UFC/DWCS fights, only losing to Nursulton Ruziboev in 2023. Most recently, he earned a highlight-reel finish against Dustin Stoltzfus with a spinning attack.

Ferreira is a very dangerous striker with power in the pocket, and he’s a judo and BJJ black belt with ground skills. Packaged together, Ferreira is very dangerous early in fights.

My main issues with Ferreira are twofold. The first is that he’s 5-foot-10. He is not a middleweight, and he will be four inches shorter than Magomedov, with a six-inch reach disadvantage as well. Eventually that will catch up to him.

The other issue is that Ferreira has never been past the six-minute mark in 13 pro fights. He’s an explosive finisher early, but we almost always find that those types do not have the energy to fight hard for 15 minutes. Now, we’ve seen him look great in Round 1, but that still tells me nothing about how he’ll fare after the first round. I’m not expecting him to just melt as soon as the fight hits Round 2, but I am highly skeptical he can retain his power and defense in the later rounds.

To be fair, Magomedov has had similar issues. He gassed out after the first round against Sean Strickland and was finished in Round 2. He also got tired against Caio Borralho. Those are two of the five best fighters in this division, though.

Otherwise, Magomedov is well-rounded and experienced. He’s gone the distance eight times and won six times, including against talents like Sadibou Sy and Warlley Alves. He just landed six takedowns en route to a clear decision against Alves. That doesn’t mean a ton, other than that I’m confident Magomedov is at least capable of fighting extended fights. He’s also a good striker with 14 KOs on his record and a base in wrestling.

Ferreira may be an early finisher or bust. His lone loss was a first-round KO, and he was taken down by Stoltzfus in his recent matchup. I think Magomedov has both striking upside and wrestling upside in this particular matchup as the much bigger man and the better fighter at distance.

Magomedov is a favorite this week, but he’s only -145 to win, which is an implied win rate of 59.18 percent. He’s actually lined as low as -135 on other books.

It’s far from a guarantee, though. Magomedov can be hurt, and I definitely think Ferreira has the power to put him away.

The distinction here is that I think that’s Ferreira’s primary path to victory, while Magomedov can win that way, with his wrestling and probably in an extended fight. All paths considered, I see a bit of value in Magomedov this week.

(Photo of Max Holloway: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)